牧高笛: 深耕户外露营景气细分赛道,内销放量外销稳健成长可期

（以下内容从天风证券《牧高笛: 深耕户外露营景气细分赛道,内销放量外销稳健成长可期》研报附件原文摘录）
　　Comefly Outdoor (603908 CH) 深耕户外露营景气细分赛道，内销放量外销稳健成长可期 Initiating coverage: ODM and own brands drive growth of China’s leading hand tools exporter TP:RMB48.80 BUY (initiation) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 深耕专业露营赛道，户外露营装备为主，出行服饰延续装备高性能基因 公司成立于2003年，主营露营帐篷、户外服饰及其他户外用品，品牌业务（大牧、小牧）以国内市场为主，全面满足专业与大众消费者穿着需求；OEM/ODM业务为全球客户提供高品质帐篷产品研发生产，产品远销欧洲、大洋洲等国际市场。 Professional camping business with a focus on equipment, along with high-performance equipment and travel apparel Comefly’s main business is in outdoor goods, including camping tents and outdoor apparel. Its house brands, Damu and Xiaomu, cater to China’s professional and individual consumers. Its R&D-based OEM/ODM business caters to global customers, manufacturing and exporting quality tents and products to Europe, Oceania and elsewhere. 露营兴起带动业绩高增，21Q1-3营收7.2亿（+41.8%），归母净利0.7亿（+44.2%）2020年营收6.4亿元同增21.4%，其中ODM/OEM营收4.8亿，品牌运营营收1.6亿元；2020年归母净利0.46亿元同增12.7%；主要系露营兴起带来户外露营参与人数及频次增长，从而带动户外露营用品需求增长。 Camping market growth lifts profitability: 1-3Q21 revenue at RMB720m (+41.8%); net profit at RMB70m (+44.2%) Revenue amounted to RMB640m in 2020, rising 21.4% yoy, of which ODM/OEM generated RMB480m while its own brands yielded RMB160m; net profit came to RMB46m, up 12.7%. We attribute this to a growing camping market, with more enthusiasts and higher frequency raising demand for camping supplies. 分地区来看，外销为主且欧洲市场占比较高。2020年外销加大欧美市场拓展力度，欧洲地区营收3.86亿元（+33.6%），北美营收同增81.5%；国内市场顶住新冠疫情压力，2020年营收1.6亿元（+3.8%）。 Exports form the bulk of its business; European markets dominate Export sales have increased with European and US market expansion. Revenue from Europe came to RMB386m (+33.6%) in 2020, while North American revenue increased 81.5% yoy. Meanwhile, its domestic market withstood Covid-19 pressures to eke out revenue of RMB160m (+3.8%). 分渠道来看，线上渠道增长态势较好。2020年公司成功把握线上流量机遇并顺应精致露营流行趋势，线上渠道持续发力，升级视觉形象、拓展社交媒体零售与跨境零售，线上渠道营收0.49亿元（+44%），线下渠道营收1.13亿元。 Good growth in online sales channels Comefly responded to the glamping trend by seizing online traffic opportunities in 2020. Its efforts to enhance online visuals and expand social media and cross-border retail paid off: online channel revenue rose 44% to RMB49m while offline channel revenue was RMB113m. ODM/OEM：全球基地分布，产能充足&供应链协同实现快反 目前公司拥有国内、越南、孟加拉三大生产基地，疫情下灵活调配产能快速响应市场、客户需求，增强客户粘性并巩固核心业务区市占率；同时通过提前布局供应链、物流仓储及生产基地，保证产能覆盖未来订单需求。牧高笛持续推行数字化中心，加强信息化、互联网化、数字化，逐步向智能化工厂转型。2021H1第一大客户迪卡侬营收占代工业务总营收50%以上，五大核心客户销售额增长稳健。 ODM/OEM: fast market response due to global distribution and production capacities, and supply chain synergy Comefly’s three production bases in China, Vietnam and Bangladesh provide it with flexibility to deploy production capacities so as to respond quickly to market and customer needs. Despite C19 challenges, it has added customer stickiness and consolidated market share in core business areas. Using the advance mechanism in its supply-chain logistics and storage and production bases, Comefly ensures that production capacity covers future order requirements. It maintains a digital center so as to strengthen its network buildout in informatization and digitization in the business transformation into an intelligent factory model. As of 1H21, its largest customer Decathlon accounted for more than 50% of total OEM revenue, while sales from its five core customers are growing steadily. 品牌：大牧持续提升品牌影响力，小牧精准市场推广与渠道下沉 大牧主打高品质、高颜值、高性价比产品，全线产品提供一站式户外体验。爆款产品冷山系列自2003年推出以来不断迭代升级，最新第5代帐篷控制总重量3kg以内；不断加强渠道拓展以及品牌跨界合作，提升品牌影响力，树立综合性精致露营行业头部品牌地位。小牧定位延续大牧专业户外基因的高性能出行服饰品牌，产品涵盖日常通勤、露营、运动等多元化场景；精准市场推广与渠道下沉。 近期公司全资子公司海口牧高笛与露营地品牌武汉大热荒野签署增资协议布局下游营地市场，有助于未来双方业务协同并为公司内销业务带来积极影响。 Own brands: growing Damu brand influence; Xiaomu channel penetration The Damu brand represents high-quality, high-value and cost-effective products with the entire line covered under a one-stop shopping experience. Its popular Cold Mountain series have undergone successive upgrades since its launch in 2003 while a 5th Generation tent weighs less than 3kg. Damu’s brand influence has grown along with channel expansion and cross-border collaborations, and its industry-leading status as a glamping brand is assured. Xiaomu is a high-performance travel apparel brand with a similar outdoor vibe as Daimu. Xiaomu’s applications cover daily commuting, camping, sports and other diverse scenarios, with precision marketing and channel penetration. The company’s wholly-owned subsidiary Haikou Comefly recently signed a capital increase agreement with campground brand Wuhan Dare Wilderness to venture into the downstream campground market. This aids future business synergy and could help improve Comefly’s domestic sales. 重点推荐/Recommendation 投资建议： 首次覆盖，给予买入评级。公司自2003年成立以来深耕专业露营细分赛道，主品牌大牧聚焦专业露营，满足各场景专业装备和服装需求；子品牌小牧延续大牧专业基因，致力于为大众提供高性能出行服饰；代工业务致力于为全球客户提供高品质帐篷产品的开发设计与生产制造；2021年11月底公司参股大热荒野，将有效整合下游资源，实现上下游协同。我们预计2021-2023年营收分别为9.2、11.9、14.4亿元，归母净利分别为0.8、1.2、1.6亿元，对应EPS分别为1.3、1.8、2.4元/股，PE分别为30、21、16X；给予公司2022年PE27X，对应股价48.8元/股。 Since its establishment in 2003, Comefly has carved out a niche in professional camping. Its primary brand Damu provides professional equipment and clothing that meet a variety of application scenarios. Its secondary Xiaomu provides high-performance travel apparel for individuals. Its OEM business provides global customers with the development, design and manufacture of high-quality tent products. Since end-November 2021, Comefly’s stake in Dare Wilderness would integrate downstream resources and achieve upstream-downstream collaborations. We expect revenue to reach RMB920m/1.19bn/ 1.44bn in 2021/22/23E, with net profit at RMB80m/120m/160m. Corresponding EPS would be RMB1.3/1.8/2.4 with PEs of 30x/21x/16x. We assign to the company a PE of 27x for 2022E, corresponding to our price target of RMB48.8. Hence, we initiate coverage with a BUY rating. 风险提示：国际政治环境变化，新冠疫情持续时间较长，户外行业增速放缓、市场竞争加剧，第一大客户销售占比较高，近期曾出现股价异动，跨市场可比公司存在估值偏差等风险。 Risks include: changes in the global political environment; a protracted Covid-19 impact; slower growth of the outdoors industry; intensifying competition; a high largest-customer concentration; share price fluctuations; and valuation deviations of cross-market peers. 以下为研报节选，查看更多请联系天风国际销售团队或访问天风国际研报网页。 The following is an extract. For the full report, please contact our sales team or visit the TFI report website. Email: equity@tfisec.com TFI research report website: (pls scan the QR code) 免责声明 分析师声明 本出版物署名分析师在此声明：本报告所表述的所有观点均准确地反映了分析师对目标证券和发行人的个人看法。分析师所得报酬的任何部分不曾与，不与，也将不会与本报告中的具体投资建议或观点有直接或间接联系。分析师所得报酬的任何部分也不与天风证券股份有限公司（“天风证券”）或其下属公司开展的任何投资银行业务有联系。 一般声明 本出版物内出现的名词“天风集团”意指天风证券有限公司及其全球范围内的附属公司和分支公司，包括天风国际资产管理公司。本出版物及其内含的所有材料是由天风集团以及（如适用）在第一页或本出版物其他地方注明了的工作人员所属的一个或多个天风集团旗下公司准备的。 本出版物的所有内容均属机密仅供天风集团的客户使用，天风集团不因收件人收到本出版物而视其为天风集团的客户。本报告中的信息均来源自我们认为可靠的已公开数据，但天风集团对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告中的信息、意见等均仅供天风集团的客户参考，不构成所述证券买卖的出价或征价邀请或要约。该等信息、意见并未考虑到获取本报告人员的具体投资目的、财务状况以及特定需求，在任何时候均不构成对任何人的个人推荐。天风集团的客户应当对本出版物中的信息和意见进行独立评估，并应同时考虑各自的投资目的、财务状况和特定需求，必要时就法律、商业、财务、税收等方面咨询专家的意见。对依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，天风集团及/或其关联人员均不承担任何法律责任。鉴于本报告可能开放于任何受众，本报告仅提供于有能力独立判断投资风险,能对自己投资决策有独立判断能力，并能根据自己对潜在投资、市场因素和其他投资考虑标准的独立判断来做出投资决策的收件人。 本出版物所载的意见、评估及预测仅为本出版物发布日的观点和判断。该等意见、评估及预测无需通知即可随时更改。过往的表现亦不应作为日后表现的预示和担保。在不同时期，天风集团可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本报告中不含任何对预测收益的一定可以实现的表达或保证。在分析当中有决定收益的相关假设。这些假设的改变可能对本报告预测的收益产生重大影响。 天风集团的销售人员、交易人员以及其他专业人士可能会依据不同假设和标准、采用不同的分析方法而口头或书面发表与本出版物意见及建议不一致的市场评论和/或交易观点。天风集团没有将此意见及建议向报告所有接收者进行更新的义务。天风集团的资产管理部门、自营部门以及其他投资业务部门可能独立做出与本出版物中的意见或建议不一致的投资决策。 特别声明 天风集团对于在研究业务当中可能产生的利益冲突有着完备的辨识和管理章程。天风集团的分析师以及其他参与本研究出版物撰写和宣传的员工有着独立于天风集团投资银行业务线的管理体系。投资银行、自营交易以及研究业务各自之间有着信息壁垒，确保任何机密以及/或者价格敏感信息被妥善处置。 本报告中所示分析师可能不时与我们的客户（包括天风集团销售员、交易员和其他专家）讨论各种交易策略，其中提及的交易策略可能会对本报告讨论的股票证券价格市场价格产生短期影响的助动因素或事件。这些可能与分析师对股票的预期价格产生抵触。但是任何此类的交易策略不同于也不会影响分析师对股票的基本评级。 在适用法律许可的情况下，天风集团可能会持有本报告中提及公司所发行的证券并进行交易，也可能为这些公司提供或争取提供投资银行、财务顾问和金融产品等各种金融服务。因此，投资者应当考虑到天风集团及/或其相关人员可能存在影响本报告观点客观性的潜在利益冲突，投资者请勿将本出版物视为投资或其他决定的唯一参考依据。 中国：本出版物在中华人民共和国（除开香港、澳门和台湾地区）由天风证券有限公司发布。天风证券股份有限公司根据中国证券监督管理委员会合法的经营业务许可运营， 当中含证券投资咨询业务。 香港：本出版物在香港由天风国际资产管理有限公司发布。天风资产管理有限公司是受香港证券及期货事务监察委员会监管并在其核准下开展证券及期货条例第571章内的受管4号牌业务（证券咨询服务），5号牌业务（期货咨询服务）以及9号牌业务（资产管理服务）。香港地区读者有任何关于本出版物的疑义可以直接咨询本公司香港销售代表。 其他司法管辖地区：研究出版物在其他司法管辖地区下的发布可能会受限于当地适用之法规，但在合规于特定司法管辖下的法律法规后会变得可行。本研究出版物不针对或旨在分发于任何属于或位于任何分布，出版，供应或使用此类研究出版物属违法之地区，州，国家或其他司法管辖区的公民或居民的任何个人或实体。 评级定义 投资评级 类别 说明 评级 体系 股票投资评级 在报告发布日期后的6个月内，相对同期该股票的司法管辖区之指数的涨跌幅 买入 预期股价相对收益20%以上 增持 预期股价相对收益10%到20% 中立 预期股价相对收益-10%到10% 持有 预期股价相对收益-10% 行业投资评级 在报告发布日期后的6个月内，相对同期该行业的司法管辖区之指数的涨跌幅 强于大市 预期行业指数涨幅5% 中性 预期行业指数涨幅 -5%到5% 弱于大市 预期行业指数涨幅 -5% 管辖区 用于定义评级的指数 中国大陆 沪深300指数 中国-香港 恒生指数 中国-澳门 恒生指数 美国 标准普尔500指数 本出版物版权归天风集团所有。任何未经天风集团书面允许的发布、复制、出版以及引用均属未授权行为。 Disclaimer Analyst Statement Each research analyst identified in this publicationcertifies that all of the views expressed in this publication by such analystaccurately reflect the personal views of each such analyst about the subjectsecurities and issuers. In addition, each research analyst identified in thispublication certifies that no part of the analyst’s compensation was, is orwill be, directly or indirectly related to the specific investmentrecommendations or views expressed in this publication, nor is it tied to anyspecific investment banking transactions performed by Tianfeng Securities Co., Ltdor any other affiliates and subsidiaries globally. General Disclosures The term "TF Group" used in thispublication refers to Tianfeng Securities Co., Ltd. and its affiliates andsubsidiaries globally, including TFI Asset Management Limited (CE No.: ASF056).This publication and all materials contained in it has been prepared by the TFGroup and, if applicable, with the contributions of one or more TF Groupentities whose employees are specified on page 1 or identified elsewhere in thepublication. The contents contained in this publication isconfidential and only for the use of clients of TF Group. TF Group will notdeem a recipient as its client by reason only of their receiving thispublication. Information herein has been obtained from sources believed to bereliable, but TF Group does not warrant its accuracy or completeness. Theinformation and opinions contained herein are provided for TF Group clients’reference only and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell or thesolicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned. Theinformation and opinions contained herein do not take into account theparticular investment objectives, financial situation, or needs of anyrecipient. Under no circumstances shall the information contained herein or theopinions expressed herein constitute a personal recommendation to anyone. TFGroup clients are advised to make their own independent evaluation of theinformation contained in this publication, consider their own individualinvestment objectives, financial situation and particular needs and consulttheir own professional and financial advisers as to the legal, business,financial, tax and other aspects if necessary. TF Group shall not be liable inany manner whatsoever for any consequences of any reliance thereon or usagethereof. To the extent this material is provided to any recipient, thismaterial is provided solely on the basis that the recipient has the capabilityto independently evaluate investment risk and is exercising independentjudgment in evaluating investment decisions in that its investment decisionswill be based on its own independent assessment of the opportunities and riskspresented by a potential investment, market factors and other investmentconsiderations. Opinions, speculations and predictions contained inthis publication reflect opinions held, and speculations and predictions made,at the time of publication. Such opinions, speculations and predictions aresubject to change and may be amended without any notification. Unless statedotherwise, any performance data quoted represents past performance. Past performance shall not be considered as areliable indication of future performance. At different periods, TF Group mayrelease publications which are inconsistent with the opinions, speculations andpredictions contained herein. Norepresentation or warranty is made that any returns indicated will be achieved.Certain assumptions may have been made in the analysis which has resulted inany returns detailed herein. Changes to the assumptions may have a materialimpact on any returns detailed. TF Group’ssalespeople, traders, and other professionals may provide oral or writtenmarket commentary and/or trading ideas that may be inconsistent with, and reachdifferent conclusions from, the recommendations and opinions presented in thispublication. Such ideas or recommendations reflect the different assumptions,views and analytical methods of the persons who prepared them, and TF Group isunder no obligation to ensure that such other trading ideas or recommendationsare brought to the attention of any recipient of this publication. TF Group’sasset management area, proprietary trading desks and other investing businessesmay make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations oropinions expressed in this publication. SpecialDisclosures TF Group has procedures in place toidentify and manage any potential conflicts of interest that arise inconnection with its research business. TF Group’s analysts and other employeeswho are involved in the preparation and dissemination of research publicationsoperate and have a management reporting line independent of TF Group’sInvestment Banking business. Information barrier procedures are in placebetween the Investment Banking, proprietary trading, and research businesses toensure that any confidential and/or price sensitive information is handled inan appropriate manner. The analysts and/or Research Support namedin the publications, as well as TF Group’s salespeople, traders, and otherprofessionals, may have, from time to time, discussed with our clients,including TF Group’s salespeople, traders, and other professionals, or maydiscuss in the publications, trading strategies that reference catalysts or eventsthat may have a near-term impact on the market price of the equity securitiesdiscussed in the publications, which impact may be directionally counter to theanalysts’ published price target expectations for such stocks. Any such tradingstrategies are distinct from and do not affect the analysts’ fundamental equityrating for such stocks as described herein. To the extent permitted by applicablelaws, TF Group may have positions in, and may effect transactions in securitiesof companies mentioned herein and may also perform or seek to performinvestment banking, financial consulting, financial products and variousfinancial services for those companies. Therefore, TF Group’s clients should beaware that TF Group and/or its associated person(s) may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of this publication and the opinionsexpressed herein. TF Group’s clients are advised not to rely on the opinionscontained in this publication when making any decision, including without limitationany investment decision. Hong Kong: This publication is distributed in Hong Kongby TFI Asset Management Limited, which is regulated by the Securities andFutures Commission of Hong Kong (“SFC”) and is licensed for the conduct ofRegulated Activity Type 4 (Advising on Securities), Type 5 (Advising on FuturesContracts), and Type 9 (Asset Management) of Part V of the Securities andFutures Ordinance (Cap. 571) (“SFO”). Queries concerning this publication from readers in Hong Kong should bedirected to our Hong Kong sales representatives. Singapore:This publication is distributed in Singapore by TFI Asset Management Limited.It is only intended for, and may be distributed only to, institutionalinvestors in Singapore (as defined in the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter289 of Singapore). Recipients of this publication should not further distributethis publication to any person that is not an institutional investor. United States of America:This publication is distributed in the United States by TFI Asset ManagementLimited pursuant to Rule 15a-6 under the United States Securities Exchange Actof 1934. Distribution is restricted to"Major U.S. Institutional Investors" only (as defined in Rule15a-6. TFI Asset Management Limited isnot a U,S, registered broker-dealer. The analyst(s) listed on the first page ofthis publication is (are) not registered or qualified as a research analystwith the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) and are not subject toU.S. FINRA Rule 2711 restrictions on communications with companies that are thesubject of this research report; public appearances; and trading securities bya research analyst. Other Jurisdictions:The distribution of research publications in other jurisdictions may berestricted by law and such reports will be made available in otherjurisdictions pursuant to the applicable laws and regulations in thoseparticular jurisdictions. The researchpublications are not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by,any person or entity that is a citizen or resident of or located in anylocality, state, country or other jurisdictions where such distribution,publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation. Ratings Definitions Investment Ratings Category Description Ratings System Stock investment ratings within 6 months from the report issuance date, increase or decrease relative to the Index of the jurisdiction of the Stock in the same period Buy Expected relative return over stock price above 20% Accumulate Expected relative return over stock price between 10% and 20% Neutral Expected relative return over stock price between -10% and 10% Sell Expected relative return over stock price below -10% Industry investment ratings within 6 months from the report issuance date, increase or decrease relative to the Index of the jurisdiction of the Industry in the same period Outperform Expected increase of industry index over 5% Neutral Expected increase of industry index between -5% and 5% Underperform Expected increase of industry index below -5% Jurisdictions Index Used for Ratings Definitions China Mainland CSI 300 Index China-Hong Kong Hang Seng Index China-Marco Hang Seng Index USA Standard & Poor’s 500 Index Copyright of the publications belong to TFGroup. Any form of unauthorized distribution, reproduction, publication,release or quotation is prohibited without TF Group’s written permission.

点此查看微信公众号原文全部内容>>

大部分微信公众号研报本站已有pdf详细完整版：https://www.wkzk.com/report/（可搜索研报标题关键词或机构名称查询原报告）