Duolingo: 2024Q2業績點評: 營收超預期,DAU與MAU迅速增長

（以下内容从天风国际证券《Duolingo: 2024Q2業績點評: 營收超預期,DAU與MAU迅速增長》研报附件原文摘录）
　　Duolingo (DUOL US) 2024Q2业绩点评: 营收超预期，DAU与MAU迅速增长 Q2E revenue surpassed Bloomberg expectations with fast growing DAU and MAU engagement TP:USD258.00 BUY (maintain) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis Duolingo 2024Q2公司实现收入1.78亿美元，同比+41%，略高於彭博一致预期（1.77亿美元）；毛利润爲1.31亿美元，略高於彭博一致预期（1.30亿美元）；毛利率爲73.45%，略高於彭博一致预期（73.35%）。调整後EBITDA 0.48亿美元，同比+130%，超越彭博一致预期（0.39亿美元）。调後EBITDA利润率爲27.0%，超越彭博一致预期（21.65%）；Non-GAAP EPS 0.51美元，大超彭博一致预期（0.35美元）。 Unaudited Q2E results: revenue up 41% yoy; adjusted EBITDA up 130% yoy Duolingo released unaudited 24Q2E results on 7 Aug 2024: ·Revenue came to USD178m, up 41% yoy, slightly more the Bloomberg consensus estimate (BBG) of USD177m; ·Gross profit was USD131m, again a tad above BBG’s USD130m; with gross margin at 73.45%, vs BBG’s 73.35%; ·Adjusted EBITDA rose 130% yoy to USD48m, beating BBG’s USD39m; with adjusted EBITDA margin at 27.0%, vs BBG’s 21.65%; ·Non-GAAP EPS came to USD0.51, beating BBG’s USD0.35. DAU、MAU增长迅速，DAU与MAU比例创历史新高：二季度，Duolingo 付费订阅人数达800万，同比+52%，超越彭博一致预期（773万）；DAU 达3410万，同比+59%，超越彭博一致预期（3292万）；MAU 达1.04亿，同比+40%，超越彭博一致预期（9801万）；DAU与MAU比例爲33%，达到历史新高。 Duolingo Max：作爲最高定价服务层级，Max已在27个国家的五种语言课程中推出，覆盖15%的DAU。Duolingo计划持续推进该服务，预计年底前Max将能在大多数国家的Android和iOS上使用，大部分用户将接触到它；同时，爲之增加例如AI驱动的实际对话练习的新功能。 Operational metrics: record 33% DAU to MAU ratio; 8m paying subs in Q2E Key metrics: daily and monthly active users (DAU and MAU) have been trending upward, with the DAU to MAU ratio at a record high in Q2E: ·Paying subscribers numbered 8m, an increase of 52% yoy, vs BBG’s 7.73m; ·DAU reached 34.1m, 59% more yoy, vs BBG’s 32.92m; ·MAU numbered 104m, 40% more yoy, vs BBG’s 98.01m; ·DAU-to-MAU ratio set a record 33%. Premium tier: Duolingo Max, the company’s highest-priced service tier, offers courses in five languages across 27 countries. Its users account for 15% of DAU. Duolingo wants to upgrade its premium service and widen its global market access. It plans to make Max available on both Android and iOS systems across most countries by end-2024. The company would add new AI-enabled features such as real-life conversation practice. 业绩指引：公司预计三季度收入1.87-1.90亿美元；调整後EBITDA 0.40-0.43亿美元，EBITDA 利润率 21.5-22.5%。公司将2024全年收入预期从7.27-7.36亿美元上调至7.31-7.38亿美元；全年调整後EBITDA从1.67-1.77亿美元上调至1.76-1.85亿美元，EBITDA 利润率23-24%从上调至24-25%。 Guidance upgrade: Duolingo expects USD731m-738m revenue in 2024E ·24Q3E: Duolingo guides third-quarter revenue to range USD187m-190m, with adjusted EBITDA at USD40m-43m on an EBITDA margin of 21.5-22.5%. ·2024E: it raised 2024E guidance to USD731m-738m revenue (previously USD727m-736m), with adjusted EBITDA at USD176m-185m (previously USD167m-177m) and EBITDA margin at 24-25% (previously 23-24%). 投资建议/Investment Ideas 投资建议：业务上，家庭计划及分层订阅计划爲学习者提供多价位选择，利於公司提升盈利能力。家庭计划增长出色，约占订阅者20%，个人订阅者转化爲家庭计划使用者比率上升；Max的推出和功能的增加预计将在2025年更全面地影响公司业绩。公司表示未来随着AI成本的下降，更多付费的AI功能将会在Super或者Free层级对用户开放，AI功能预计将更广泛的推广并爲用户带来更好的使用体验。我们看好Duolingo出色的用户体验带来的付费转化率提升。建议关注：Duolingo。 Valuation and risks Subscription structure: Duolingo’s family plan and different subscription tiers collectively provides learners with multiple price-point options to increase total profitability. Penetration of the family plan has increased to account for about 20% of subscribers, along with the growing conversion of individual-to-family subscribers. The premium Max tier with additional functionalities was launched in 2023 and we expect to see its full business impact only in the 2025E results. Widening AI features: as AI costs continue to fall in the future, the company said it will be able to make more paid AI features available to other users in the Super and Free tiers. Duolingo intends to widen the reach of AI functionalities to enhance user experience. Valuation: we anticipate Duolingo’s social-first marketing strategy and excellent user experience will help drive up its paid user conversion rates. We forecast revenue will come at USD734m/933m/1.17bn in 2024/25/26E, corresponding to 12x/9.5x/7.5x PS, and GAAP net profit at USD68m/119m/178m. We assign a 12x PS for 2025E, which derives our target price of USD258. We maintain our BUY rating. 风险提示：用户增长不及预期，付费转化率不及预期，AI发展不及预期。 Risks include: lower-than-expected user growth; worse-than-expected paid user conversion rates; and slower-than-expected AI development progress. 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