牧高笛:淡季不淡盈利提升,驭势而为乘风破浪

（以下内容从天风证券《牧高笛:淡季不淡盈利提升,驭势而为乘风破浪》研报附件原文摘录）
　　Comefly Outdoor (603908 CH) 淡季不淡盈利提升，驭势而为乘风破浪 Outdoor tailwinds continue: Comefly posts a resilient profit uptrend even in off-season BUY (maintain) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 22H1收入8.7亿元同增61.3%，归母净利1.1亿元同增111.8% 公司22H1收入8.67亿元同增61.3%，主要系自主品牌业务装备市场增长迅猛以及代工业务增长；其中22Q1、Q2收入及增速分别为3.27亿（+56.1%）、5.40亿（+64.7%）元。22H1公司归母净利润1.13亿元同增111.8%；其中22Q1、Q2归母净利及增速分别为0.37亿（+73.4%）、0.76亿（+137.1%）元。 22H1 revenue up 61.3% yoy to RMB867m; net profit jumped 111.8% to RMB113m The company’s 22H1 revenue was RMB867m, up 61.3% yoy, mainly due to the rapid growth of the equipment market for its own brand business and the growth of OEM business; of which 22Q1 and Q2 revenue and growth rates were RMB327m (up 56.1%) and RMB540m (up 64.7%). In 22H1, the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB113m, up 111.8%; of which, the net profit attributable to the parent company and growth rate in 22Q1 and Q2 were RMB37m (up 73.4%) and RMB76m (up 137.1%) respectively. Q2品牌业务收入环比提速，大牧线下增速领跑 分业务看，22Q2品牌收入2.53亿元（占总46.9%），同增234.4%；OEM/ODM收入2.83亿元（占总52.5%），同增12.5%。 自有品牌分销售渠道看，22Q2线上收入1.18亿元（占比46.6%），同增309.4%；大牧线下（专业装备分销、大客户、线下门店）收入1.23亿元（占比48.4%），同增385.4%；小牧直营收入540.93万元（占比2.1%），同减15.1%；小牧加盟收入712.46万元（占比2.8%），同减43.5%。 Q2 brands revenue growth sped up qoq; robust offline business ·Divisions: brands RMB253m revenue (46.9% of the total), up 234.4% yoy; OEM/ODM: RMB283m revenue (52.5% of the total), up 12.5% yoy. ·House brands’ sales channels: online: revenue in 22Q2 was RMB118m (accounting for 46.6%), up 309.4% yoy; offline: (professional equipment distribution, major customers, offline stores) revenue was RMB123m (accounting for 48.4%), up 385.4% yoy; direct sales: revenue was RMB5.4093m (accounting for 2.1%), a yoy decrease of 15.1%; franchise sales: income was RMB7.1246m (accounting for 2.8%), a yoy decrease of 43.5%. 品牌净利率增至13.5%高于OEM，盈利能力显著提升 22H1公司毛利率27.3%，同增3.2pct，Q2毛利率28.3%环比Q1（25.5%）增长2.9pct；归母净利率13.0%，同比增长3.1pct（其中22H1浙江牧高笛，即品牌业务净利0.47亿，净利率约13.5%，带动净利率增长，未来品牌业务利润占比有望持续提升），Q2归母净利率14.1%环比Q1（11.2%）增长2.9pct。 Margin performance: brands net margin outperformed OEM at 13.5% ·Total: gross profit margin was 27.3% in H1, up 3.2ppt yoy, and 28.3% in Q2, up 2.9ppt qoq (Q1: 25.5%); while net margin was 13.0% in H1, up 3.1ppt yoy. Brands, including Mobi Garden, posted H1 net profit at RMB47m with net margin at about 13.5%, driving total net margin growth. We expect brands will continue to increase profit share in the future. Q2 net margin came in at 14.1%, up 2.9ppt qoq (Q1: 11.2%). 分业务看，22H1自有品牌业务毛利率36.0%，同增1.5pct；OEM/ODM业务毛利率21.5%，同增0.5pct。 费控良好，22H1期间费率同减0.4pct至10.2%。22H1公司销售/管理/研发/财务费率分别4.0%（+0.2pct）、4.7%（+0.4pct）、1.7%（-0.3pct）、-0.2%（-0.7pct）。 ·House brands vs OEM/ODM: H1 house brands gross profit margin was 36.0%, up 1.5ppt yoy; OEM/ODM gross profit margin was 21.5%, up 0.5ppt yoy. ·Fees were well managed with the H1 ratio reduced 0.4ppt yoy to 10.2%; sales/management/R&D/financial fee ratios were at 4.0% (up 0.2ppt)/ 4.7% (up 0.4ppt)/ 1.7% (down 0.3ppt)/ and -0.2% (down 0.7ppt). 投资建议/Investment Ideas 维持盈利预测，维持买入评级。我们看好头部露营品牌对于精致户外生活方式的定义及美好健康生活理念的诠释；借助户外风在装备领域提升品牌声量，构建周边产品矩阵及户外生活生态圈，把户外理念融入进日常生活，进一步提升渗透率同时激活更多场景价值。我们认为牧高笛将把握时机继续丰富产品矩阵，加强营销露出，顺势提升品牌势能；在规模增长同时品牌及OEM业务净利率成重要看点，盈利能力提升或将贯穿全年。我们预计公司22-24年EPS分别为2.7、3.6、4.7元/股，PE分别为37、28、21x。 Valuation and risks We maintain our earnings forecast and BUY rating. We see rosy prospects for leading camping brands amid a rising market for outdoor lifestyle glamor in accordance with healthy lifestyle choices. Outdoor market tailwinds are driving equipment brand influence, peripheral product matrix and outdoor life ecosystems. As the outdoor vibe becomes part of daily life, we expect outdoor market penetration to expand higher-value application scenarios. We believe Comefly will use every opportunity to enrich its product matrix, strengthen marketing exposure and propel its brand momentum. We expect the company to scale up as brand and OEM net margins dominate its business focus and drive a profit uptrend through the year. We forecast EPS of RMB2.70/3.60/4.70 in 2022/23/24E and PEs at 37/28/21x. 风险提示：户外行业增速放缓，海外需求波动，原材料价格波动风险等。 Risks include: a growth slowdown in outdoor markets; volatile export demand; and raw material price fluctuations. 以下为研报节选，查看更多请联系天风国际销售团队或访问天风国际研报网页。 The following is an extract. For the full report, please contact our sales team or visit the TFI report website. Email: equity@tfisec.com TFI research report website: (pls scan the QR code) 本文件由天风国际证券集团有限公司, 天风国际证券与期货有限公司（证监会中央编号：BAV573）及天风国际资产管理有限公司（证监会中央编号：ASF056）（合称“天风国际集团”）编制，所载资料可能以若干假设为基础，仅供专业投资者作非商业用途及参考之用途，会因经济、市场及其他情况而随时更改而毋须另行通知。任何媒体、网站或个人未经授权不得转载、链接、转贴或以其他方式复制发表本文件及任何内容。已获授权者，在使用本文件或任何内容时必须注明稿件来源于天风国际集团，并承诺遵守相关法例及一切使用的国际惯例，不为任何非法目的或以任何非法方式使用本文件，违者将依法追究相关法律责任。本文件所引用之数据或资料可能得自第三方，天风国际集团将尽可能确认资料来源之可靠性，但天风国际集团并不对第三方所提供数据或资料之准确性负责。且天风国际集团不会就本文件所载任何资料、预测及／或意见的公平性、准确性、时限性、完整性或正确性，以及任何该等预测及／或意见所依据的基准作出任何明文或暗示的保证、陈述、担保或承诺而负责或承担任何法律责任。本文件中如有类似前瞻性陈述之内容，此等内容或陈述不得视为对任何将来表现之保证，且应注意实际情况或发展可能与该等陈述有重大落差。本文件并非及不应被视为邀约、招揽、邀请、建议买卖任何投资产品或投资决策之依据，亦不应被诠释为专业意见。阅览本文件的人士或在作出任何投资决策前，应完全了解其风险以及有关法律、赋税及会计的特点及后果，并根据个人的情况决定投资是否切合个人的投资目标，以及能否承担有关风险，必要时应寻求适当的专业意见。投资涉及风险。敬请投资者注意，证券及投资的价值可升亦可跌，过往的表现不一定可以预示日后的表现。在若干国家，传阅及分派本文件的方式可能受法律或规例所限制。获取本文件的人士须知悉及遵守该等限制。 阅读原文 立即开户

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