牧高笛:618首轮表现突出,露营消费有望持续超预期
（以下内容从天风证券《牧高笛:618首轮表现突出,露营消费有望持续超预期》研报附件原文摘录）
Comefly Outdoor (603908 CH) 618首轮表现突出，露营消费有望持续超预期 Strong 618 pre-sales: camping goods consumption set to outperform expectations BUY (maintain) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 自618预售开启后，户外露营装备高速增长；目前618首轮销售基本结束，伴随天猫第三轮狂欢、京东销售高峰及抖音发力，我们预计6月整体规模预计显著超越3、4、5月，同比保持高速增长；今年3月销售高增以来，我们预计22Q2规模有望超越去年全年，全年品牌持续超预期表现。 Total June sales to outpace March, April and May and sustain yoy growth Since pre-sales for the Chinese 618 online shopping festival began, sales of camping equipment have grown fast. Round one has ended but there is the third round of the Tmall carnival, the JD.com sales peak and TikTok momentum, from we expect to provide a strong June outperformance against March, April and May, and to sustain high yoy growth. With the high sales growth trend since March this year, we expect Q2 this year to outperform 2021, as the brand could continue to exceed expectations through the year. 近期强调露营会从短期消费热点转变为高质量个性化大众化生活方式，本身自带流量，多行业主动跨界联名合作，加速行业渗透。人们对于自然追求、户外运动是永恒主题，露营提供天然场景；疫情仅是催化，背后更是汽车保有率、城镇化率、性价比消费、社媒传播、精致化生活追求、美丽乡村等多因素作用。我们预计国内装备市场容量500亿以上，且国牌凭借供应链优势、本地化运营等持续提升市占率。 Camping profile transforms into mass lifestyle market with dedicated traffic The seasonal profile of camping goods has evolved into a longer-term quality and personalized mass lifestyle market that commands its own user traffic flow. Many other markets have taken the initiative to establish cross-border co-branding cooperation to penetrate this market. Nature and outdoor sports are perennial drivers and camping provides a natural set of scenarios. The pandemic has been just one catalyst; others are rising car ownership, urbanization, cost-effective consumption, social media communications, lifestyle refinements, and the countryside appeal. We estimate Chinese equipment capacity at over RMB50bn, with Chinese national brands growing market share by virtue of their supply chain advantages and local operations. 近期牧高笛联名日本动漫摇曳露营增加话题性及品牌焕新，此前联名LINE FRIENDS取得较好市场反馈。作为传统代工企业，牧高笛在品牌业务运营中，展现出较强的多样化年轻化特点，凭借商品材质及设计领跑国内头部装备品牌，主要系凭借多年ODM经验，牧高笛为迪卡侬等全球户外品牌提供设计研发等丰富高品质SKU，除代工规模全球领先，产品研发也积累较强实力；同时强大供应链提供稳定供货保障。 Media collaborations raise Comefly’s topicality and brand renewal Comefly Outdoors co-branded with Japanese anime Laid-Back Camp to increase its topicality and brand renewal, after having received good market feedback for a previous co-branding effort with Line Friends. As a traditional market OEM, Comefly Outdoors offers better diversity with a youthful vibe in its brand business operations. It is ahead of other Chinese equipment brands by virtue of its product materials and designs, due to many years of ODM experience. Its quality SKUs are based on strong design and product development, as seen in global outdoor brands such as Decathlon. This has been due to its leading global OEM business scale as well as a stable supply chain. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 维持盈利预测，维持买入评级 我们预计全年装备线上销售或突破4亿，品牌业务全渠道报表收入口径实现8亿+，同比增长200%+。多渠道多场景布局，占据并持续拓展国内头部品牌份额，充分获取行业增长红利。此外，全球露营持续增长，OEM等出口订单充沛。我们预计22-23年净利分别为1.5、2.3亿元，数据有望持续超预期，PE分别为43X、28X。 Valuation and risks We expect full-year equipment sales from the online channel to exceed RMB400m while the omni-channel brand business could generate over RMB800m, up more than 200% yoy. Its omni-channel multi-scenario network could help expand its market share in leading Chinese brands, leading to industry growth. We also see a growing global camping market in view of ample OEM and other export orders. We expect net profit in 2022/23E to arrive at RMB150m/230m, likely exceeding expectations at PEs of 43x/28x. 风险提示：疫情反复影响终端需求与物流，户外行业增速放缓，原材料价格波动风险等。 Risks include: pandemic resurgence affecting end-demand and logistics; slowing outdoor industry growth; and raw material price fluctuations. 以下为研报节选，查看更多请联系天风国际销售团队或访问天风国际研报网页。 The following is an extract. For the full report, please contact our sales team or visit the TFI report website. Email: equity@tfisec.com TFI research report website: (pls scan the QR code) 本文件由天风国际证券集团有限公司, 天风国际证券与期货有限公司（证监会中央编号：BAV573）及天风国际资产管理有限公司（证监会中央编号：ASF056）（合称“天风国际集团”）编制，所载资料可能以若干假设为基础，仅供专业投资者作非商业用途及参考之用途，会因经济、市场及其他情况而随时更改而毋须另行通知。任何媒体、网站或个人未经授权不得转载、链接、转贴或以其他方式复制发表本文件及任何内容。已获授权者，在使用本文件或任何内容时必须注明稿件来源于天风国际集团，并承诺遵守相关法例及一切使用的国际惯例，不为任何非法目的或以任何非法方式使用本文件，违者将依法追究相关法律责任。本文件所引用之数据或资料可能得自第三方，天风国际集团将尽可能确认资料来源之可靠性，但天风国际集团并不对第三方所提供数据或资料之准确性负责。且天风国际集团不会就本文件所载任何资料、预测及／或意见的公平性、准确性、时限性、完整性或正确性，以及任何该等预测及／或意见所依据的基准作出任何明文或暗示的保证、陈述、担保或承诺而负责或承担任何法律责任。本文件中如有类似前瞻性陈述之内容，此等内容或陈述不得视为对任何将来表现之保证，且应注意实际情况或发展可能与该等陈述有重大落差。本文件并非及不应被视为邀约、招揽、邀请、建议买卖任何投资产品或投资决策之依据，亦不应被诠释为专业意见。阅览本文件的人士或在作出任何投资决策前，应完全了解其风险以及有关法律、赋税及会计的特点及后果，并根据个人的情况决定投资是否切合个人的投资目标，以及能否承担有关风险，必要时应寻求适当的专业意见。投资涉及风险。敬请投资者注意，证券及投资的价值可升亦可跌，过往的表现不一定可以预示日后的表现。在若干国家，传阅及分派本文件的方式可能受法律或规例所限制。获取本文件的人士须知悉及遵守该等限制。 阅读原文 立即开户
Comefly Outdoor (603908 CH) 618首轮表现突出，露营消费有望持续超预期 Strong 618 pre-sales: camping goods consumption set to outperform expectations BUY (maintain) 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 自618预售开启后，户外露营装备高速增长；目前618首轮销售基本结束，伴随天猫第三轮狂欢、京东销售高峰及抖音发力，我们预计6月整体规模预计显著超越3、4、5月，同比保持高速增长；今年3月销售高增以来，我们预计22Q2规模有望超越去年全年，全年品牌持续超预期表现。 Total June sales to outpace March, April and May and sustain yoy growth Since pre-sales for the Chinese 618 online shopping festival began, sales of camping equipment have grown fast. Round one has ended but there is the third round of the Tmall carnival, the JD.com sales peak and TikTok momentum, from we expect to provide a strong June outperformance against March, April and May, and to sustain high yoy growth. With the high sales growth trend since March this year, we expect Q2 this year to outperform 2021, as the brand could continue to exceed expectations through the year. 近期强调露营会从短期消费热点转变为高质量个性化大众化生活方式，本身自带流量，多行业主动跨界联名合作，加速行业渗透。人们对于自然追求、户外运动是永恒主题，露营提供天然场景；疫情仅是催化，背后更是汽车保有率、城镇化率、性价比消费、社媒传播、精致化生活追求、美丽乡村等多因素作用。我们预计国内装备市场容量500亿以上，且国牌凭借供应链优势、本地化运营等持续提升市占率。 Camping profile transforms into mass lifestyle market with dedicated traffic The seasonal profile of camping goods has evolved into a longer-term quality and personalized mass lifestyle market that commands its own user traffic flow. Many other markets have taken the initiative to establish cross-border co-branding cooperation to penetrate this market. Nature and outdoor sports are perennial drivers and camping provides a natural set of scenarios. The pandemic has been just one catalyst; others are rising car ownership, urbanization, cost-effective consumption, social media communications, lifestyle refinements, and the countryside appeal. We estimate Chinese equipment capacity at over RMB50bn, with Chinese national brands growing market share by virtue of their supply chain advantages and local operations. 近期牧高笛联名日本动漫摇曳露营增加话题性及品牌焕新，此前联名LINE FRIENDS取得较好市场反馈。作为传统代工企业，牧高笛在品牌业务运营中，展现出较强的多样化年轻化特点，凭借商品材质及设计领跑国内头部装备品牌，主要系凭借多年ODM经验，牧高笛为迪卡侬等全球户外品牌提供设计研发等丰富高品质SKU，除代工规模全球领先，产品研发也积累较强实力；同时强大供应链提供稳定供货保障。 Media collaborations raise Comefly’s topicality and brand renewal Comefly Outdoors co-branded with Japanese anime Laid-Back Camp to increase its topicality and brand renewal, after having received good market feedback for a previous co-branding effort with Line Friends. As a traditional market OEM, Comefly Outdoors offers better diversity with a youthful vibe in its brand business operations. It is ahead of other Chinese equipment brands by virtue of its product materials and designs, due to many years of ODM experience. Its quality SKUs are based on strong design and product development, as seen in global outdoor brands such as Decathlon. This has been due to its leading global OEM business scale as well as a stable supply chain. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 维持盈利预测，维持买入评级 我们预计全年装备线上销售或突破4亿，品牌业务全渠道报表收入口径实现8亿+，同比增长200%+。多渠道多场景布局，占据并持续拓展国内头部品牌份额，充分获取行业增长红利。此外，全球露营持续增长，OEM等出口订单充沛。我们预计22-23年净利分别为1.5、2.3亿元，数据有望持续超预期，PE分别为43X、28X。 Valuation and risks We expect full-year equipment sales from the online channel to exceed RMB400m while the omni-channel brand business could generate over RMB800m, up more than 200% yoy. Its omni-channel multi-scenario network could help expand its market share in leading Chinese brands, leading to industry growth. We also see a growing global camping market in view of ample OEM and other export orders. We expect net profit in 2022/23E to arrive at RMB150m/230m, likely exceeding expectations at PEs of 43x/28x. 风险提示：疫情反复影响终端需求与物流，户外行业增速放缓，原材料价格波动风险等。 Risks include: pandemic resurgence affecting end-demand and logistics; slowing outdoor industry growth; and raw material price fluctuations. 以下为研报节选，查看更多请联系天风国际销售团队或访问天风国际研报网页。 The following is an extract. For the full report, please contact our sales team or visit the TFI report website. Email: equity@tfisec.com TFI research report website: (pls scan the QR code) 本文件由天风国际证券集团有限公司, 天风国际证券与期货有限公司（证监会中央编号：BAV573）及天风国际资产管理有限公司（证监会中央编号：ASF056）（合称“天风国际集团”）编制，所载资料可能以若干假设为基础，仅供专业投资者作非商业用途及参考之用途，会因经济、市场及其他情况而随时更改而毋须另行通知。任何媒体、网站或个人未经授权不得转载、链接、转贴或以其他方式复制发表本文件及任何内容。已获授权者，在使用本文件或任何内容时必须注明稿件来源于天风国际集团，并承诺遵守相关法例及一切使用的国际惯例，不为任何非法目的或以任何非法方式使用本文件，违者将依法追究相关法律责任。本文件所引用之数据或资料可能得自第三方，天风国际集团将尽可能确认资料来源之可靠性，但天风国际集团并不对第三方所提供数据或资料之准确性负责。且天风国际集团不会就本文件所载任何资料、预测及／或意见的公平性、准确性、时限性、完整性或正确性，以及任何该等预测及／或意见所依据的基准作出任何明文或暗示的保证、陈述、担保或承诺而负责或承担任何法律责任。本文件中如有类似前瞻性陈述之内容，此等内容或陈述不得视为对任何将来表现之保证，且应注意实际情况或发展可能与该等陈述有重大落差。本文件并非及不应被视为邀约、招揽、邀请、建议买卖任何投资产品或投资决策之依据，亦不应被诠释为专业意见。阅览本文件的人士或在作出任何投资决策前，应完全了解其风险以及有关法律、赋税及会计的特点及后果，并根据个人的情况决定投资是否切合个人的投资目标，以及能否承担有关风险，必要时应寻求适当的专业意见。投资涉及风险。敬请投资者注意，证券及投资的价值可升亦可跌，过往的表现不一定可以预示日后的表现。在若干国家，传阅及分派本文件的方式可能受法律或规例所限制。获取本文件的人士须知悉及遵守该等限制。 阅读原文 立即开户
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