家用电器——如何看待清洁电器行业?

（以下内容从天风证券《家用电器——如何看待清洁电器行业?》研报附件原文摘录）
　　China Household Appliances 天风问答系列报告：如何看待清洁电器行业？ Tianfeng Q&A: Chinese cleaning appliances set to increase penetration in 2022E amid market boom 投资要点/Investment Thesis 投资要点/Investment Thesis 1. 清洁电器全球的发展历史和现状如何？ 纵观全球，清洁电器有很长的发展历史。随着人们生活节奏的加快，从早期的吸尘器到扫地机洗地机，产品的迭代和进化始终围绕着简化清洁步骤和使用便捷展开，以便优化消费者的清洁体验。目前在全球清洁电器市场上，海外在清洁电器，特别是吸尘器品类上的渗透率较高，清洁电器更加偏向于刚需类产品，同时产品具有多样化、专业化的特点；国内清洁电器市场增速高，渗透率尚低，近年来随着扫地机和洗地机的兴起，未来渗透率有望进一步上升。从清洁电器品牌看，全球清洁电器市场有向核心品牌逐渐集中的趋势，海外传统清洁电器品牌市占率基本保持稳定，国内清洁电器头部品牌在全球的市占率逐步上升。 1. Take us through the global cleaning appliance market’s development trends The global cleaning appliance industry has a long development history. From early-version vacuum cleaners to sweepers and scrubbers, a faster pace of living has driven constant cleaning device upgrades, so as to provide a simpler and easier cleaning experience. Foreign manufacturers have a deeper penetration of the global cleaning device market, especially in vacuum cleaners. While these products tend to fulfill inelastic demand, they also come in diverse types and specialized categories. Chinese cleaning appliances have a low penetration rate but they are growing rapidly. Domestic sweepers and scrubbers represent a rising market and we expect their penetration to increase. The global market is shaped by the dominance of a few main brands: traditional foreign brands have stable market shares but Chinese brand leaders are rising gradually. 2. 如何看待国内的清洁电器市场？ 国内清洁电器市场在自清洁扫地机和洗地机产品大量进入市场后，呈现出产品高端化，品牌头部化的趋势。从销额看，由于产品均价的提升，清洁电器市场规模保持了20%以上的双位数增长；但从销量看，21年清洁电器整体销量仅有个位数增长，其中占比最高的扫地机销量增速更低。扫地机品类销量增速放缓使部分投资者担忧是否已到达了增长瓶颈。我们对标日本清洁电器的发展路径测算国内清洁电器和子品类的市场规模。经我们测算，到2025年，清洁电器/推杆式吸尘器/扫地机/洗地机的销售规模分别为6821/966/1129/1337万台，2021-2025 CAGR分别为20.6%/12.1%/20.3%/38.2%。通过对国内清洁电器市场的测算以及对22年各品牌新品布局的分析，我们认为清洁电器在长期仍有很大的发展空间；短期内各品牌通过拓宽价格带，布局多种sku的方式也将丰富消费者的选择，从而达到量价齐升的目的。 2. How do you view China’s cleaning appliance industry? With the mass entry of robot sweepers and scrubbers, high-end products by Chinese brand leaders dominate market trends. The domestic cleaning appliance market has maintained a double-digit growth trend of over 20% in total sales, as ASPs and sales volumes have risen in tandem. However, the market grew by only a single digit in 2021, when the largest segment of sweeper appliances saw a sales growth slowdown; this segment has raised investor concern over a possible growth bottleneck. Using the Japanese cleaning appliance industry as a reference, we gauge the size of the Chinese cleaning appliance market segment by segment. Our estimates project total sales of cleaning appliances/push-type vacuum cleaners/sweepers/scrubbers at 68.21m/9.66m/ 11.29m/13.37m units in 2025E, on CAGRs of 20.6%/12.1%/20.3%/38.2% over 2021-25E. Based on our market estimates and analysis of Chinese brands’ new-product matrix in 2022E, we see high growth potential for China’s cleaning appliance market in the long term. In the short term, we expect certain brands to broaden their price bands and SKU matrix to enrich consumer choices, which would drive up volume and price. 3. 国内品牌在海外市场竞争力如何？ 随着国内产品竞争力的增强，越来越多国内的清洁电器品牌选择出海销售，拓展海外市场。从20-21年Jungle Scout的数据看，海外扫地机市场对于自集尘产品需求较好，且整体价格带有向两极化发展的趋势。与海外扫地机龙头品牌irobot相比，国内品牌在产品品质和价格上极具竞争力，且在产品升级迭代上快于海外品牌，同时在产品的口碑上也有较好的反馈。展望22年，我们认为随着国内品牌陆续将自清洁扫地机推出国门后，海外扫地机市场将有望迎来产品结构升级，有望复制国内21年扫地机增长的路径，由价格提升带动整体市场的增长。 3. How competitive are Chinese brands in the global market? As Chinese cleaning appliances become more competitive, more and more domestic brands have chosen to export and are expanding their markets overseas. In the robot sweeper export markets, demand is especially strong for auto-dust-collection versions, which has increased price polarization, based on Jungle Scout data for 2020-21. Compared with iRobot, the leading robot cleaner brand, Chinese brands are highly competitive in terms of both quality and price, offer faster product upgrades and earn better product reviews. Looking ahead to the remainder of 2022E, we believe that as Chinese brands continue to launch robot sweepers in the global market, we would see an upgraded product matrix in the export sweeper market that replicates the Chinese market growth trend in 2021, where ASP increases drive total market sales growth. 投资建议/Investment Ideas 投资建议：展望22年，国内市场上，我们认为各家通过推出不同的sku覆盖更多的价格带，使追求性价比的消费者有更多的选择；同时随着价格带的扩张，行业有望实现由价增主要带动转为由量增主要带动的增长，渗透率也有望进一步提升。海外市场上，我们认为随着国内品牌陆续将自清洁扫地机推出国门后，海外扫地机市场将有望迎来产品结构升级，有望复制国内21年扫地机增长的路径，由价格提升带动整体市场的增长。我们看好在清洁电器高景气度赛道下国内清洁电器龙头品牌的发展，建议关注石头科技、科沃斯。 Executive summary Looking ahead to the rest of 2022E, we believe Chinese market product launches will reflect widening price bands and more diverse SKUs to give cost-conscious consumers better choices. As price bands widen, we expect to see industry growth, driven by ASP and volume increase, which would lead to deeper market penetration. We believe that as domestic brands introduce more robot sweepers onto the global market, its export market will see a product matrix upgrade in 2022E, similar to the domestic robot sweeper market trend of 2021, where total sales would be driven by price increases. We like Chinese cleaning appliance leaders amid the market boom. We suggest investors focus Beijing Roborock Technology (688169 CH, ACCUMULATE) and Ecovacs Robotics (603486 CH, ACCUMULATE). 风险提示：新品销售不及预期，原材料价格上涨，核心零部件供应短缺，海外市场扩张不及预期，宏观经济环境变化导致市场需求不及预期等。 Risks include: new product sales perform below expectations; rising prices of raw materials; supply shortage in core components; weaker export market expansion than expected; and weaker demand than expected on macroeconomic changes. Email: equity@tfisec.com TFI research report website: (pls scan the QR code) 本文件由天风国际证券集团有限公司, 天风国际证券与期货有限公司（证监会中央编号：BAV573）及天风国际资产管理有限公司（证监会中央编号：ASF056）（合称“天风国际集团”）编制，所载资料可能以若干假设为基础，仅供专业投资者作非商业用途及参考之用途，会因经济、市场及其他情况而随时更改而毋须另行通知。任何媒体、网站或个人未经授权不得转载、链接、转贴或以其他方式复制发表本文件及任何内容。已获授权者，在使用本文件或任何内容时必须注明稿件来源于天风国际集团，并承诺遵守相关法例及一切使用的国际惯例，不为任何非法目的或以任何非法方式使用本文件，违者将依法追究相关法律责任。本文件所引用之数据或资料可能得自第三方，天风国际集团将尽可能确认资料来源之可靠性，但天风国际集团并不对第三方所提供数据或资料之准确性负责。且天风国际集团不会就本文件所载任何资料、预测及／或意见的公平性、准确性、时限性、完整性或正确性，以及任何该等预测及／或意见所依据的基准作出任何明文或暗示的保证、陈述、担保或承诺而负责或承担任何法律责任。本文件中如有类似前瞻性陈述之内容，此等内容或陈述不得视为对任何将来表现之保证，且应注意实际情况或发展可能与该等陈述有重大落差。本文件并非及不应被视为邀约、招揽、邀请、建议买卖任何投资产品或投资决策之依据，亦不应被诠释为专业意见。阅览本文件的人士或在作出任何投资决策前，应完全了解其风险以及有关法律、赋税及会计的特点及后果，并根据个人的情况决定投资是否切合个人的投资目标，以及能否承担有关风险，必要时应寻求适当的专业意见。投资涉及风险。敬请投资者注意，证券及投资的价值可升亦可跌，过往的表现不一定可以预示日后的表现。在若干国家，传阅及分派本文件的方式可能受法律或规例所限制。获取本文件的人士须知悉及遵守该等限制。 阅读原文 立即开户

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